Business & Heritage Clarksville
Local News, Business, Arts, Heritage – DAILY Serving the Clarksville, TN region.



Politics

October 30, 2014
 

Early voting poll results show strong numbers

More articles by »
Written by: News Staff
Tags: , , , ,

October 30 was the last day for early voting in Tennessee before the official ballot on November 4. Many Montgomery County voters have shown up at the Election Commission over the past two weeks and cast their ballots.

An independent polling group has taken a look at Clarksville’s mayoral race thus far. The polling sought a base response of at least 250 county voters. 

Now that early voting has ended, candidates will have to look to the voter turnout on November 4 to either secure election victory or upset.

The Polling Data:

1. Gender & Ethnicity

Answer Choices         Response
Asian

0.00%

Black

18.48%

Hispanic/Latino

3.26%

White

75.00%

Male

59.78%

female

41.30%

2.  Who do you or have you voted for Mayor in the upcoming election? 

Answer Choices Response
Jeff Burkhart

38.64%

Kim McMillan

32.95%

Bill Summers

28.41%

3.  When did you finally decide for whom to vote in this election? 

Answer Choices             Response
Just Today

9.89%

In the last three days

5.49%

Sometime last week

8.79%

During the last month

21.98%

Before that

53.85%

4  To which age group do you belong?  

Answer Choices        Response
18-24

4.40%

25-29

3.30%

30-39

9.89%

40-44

10.99%

445-49

5.49%

50-59

30.77%

60-64

16.48%

65-69

7.69%

70 or older

10.99%

5.  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mayor Kim McMillan is handling her job as Mayor? 

Answer Choices     Responses
Strongly Approve

18.07%

Somewhat Approve

30.76%

Somewhat Disapprove

18.07%

Strongly Disapprove

24.10%

6.  If this were a two-way race, which of these candidates would you vote for? 

Answer Choices        Response
Kim McMillan

56.96%

Bill Summers

43.04%

7. If this was a two-way race, which of these candidates would you vote for? 

Answer Choices          Responses
Jeff Burkhart

53.19%

Kim McMillan

46.81%

8.  How do you plan to vote on Amendment 1? 

Answer Choices        Response
Yes

58.14%

No

41.86

9.  What best describes your political beliefs? 

Answer Choices               Response
Very Liberal

4.44%

Somewhat Liberal

14.44%

Moderate

33.33%

Somewhat Conservative

28.89%

Very Conservative

18.89%

[Note that for 95% confidence interval using a sample size of 250, there lis a a +/- 6% margin of error (MOE) on these polls.]

Professor Michael Gruszczynski,PhD, of APSU Dept. of Political Science, was asked to review these poll results. His assessment is as follows. 

The mayor’s race is looking fairly good for Burkhart; allowing for the 6% MOE, he’s still slightly ahead in these polls. Granted, there is some overlap between the three candidates, but probability-wise he’s running ahead.

Given the two-way hypothetical face-offs it’s a bit closer (it looks like it’s more likely that the vote is splitting a bit between Burkhart and Summers, rather than splitting off of McMillan toward either of the challengers), but in the outright election Burkhart is doing pretty well.

The big question in this race is whether a difference exists between those who have already voted in early voting and those who wait until Nov. 4. That said, this does look like a fairly representative slice of what we would expect, given the demographics of Clarksville and of who typically votes age-wise, with perhaps a bit of skew toward the high-end of age and with more males-to-females than we’ll expect on election day.

Now it’s on to Election Day, November 4. That’s next Tuesday, for those who haven’t figured it out. 



About the Author

News Staff




 
 

 

Early Voting  ends October 30  Exercise your franchise now 

These are the last three days for early voting. The Montgomery County Election Commission, located at Veterans Plaza, 350 Pageant Lane, Suite 404 is the voting place for early voting.
by News Staff
 

 
 

Early voting continues with Saturday option

Early voting is being conducted at the Montgomery County Election Commission, Montgomery Veterans Plaza, 350 Pageant Lane, Suite 40.
by News Staff
 

 
 

Early voting begins today

It's time to make your vote count. Early voting dates and times in the State General and City Elections in Tennessee have been announced.
by News Staff
 

 




Facebook

Twitter